Data on this report is based on areas within the legal city boundary, outlined in black on the map. Any additional neighborhoods shown on the map are associated with the city by name and are included for reference only.
Raw data sources:
18,000 local law enforcement agencies in the U.S.
Date(s) & Update Frequency:
"Reflects 2023 calendar year; released from FBI in October 2024 (latest available). Updated annually."
Where is 2024 data?
Methodology:
Our nationwide meta-analysis overcomes the issues inherent in any crime database, including non-reporting and reporting errors. This is possible by associating the 9.4 million reported crimes in the U.S, including over 2 million geocoded point locations….
Read more about Scout's Crime Data
With a crime rate of 29 per one thousand residents, Modesto has one of the highest crime rates in America compared to all communities of all sizes - from the smallest towns to the very largest cities. One's chance of becoming a victim of either violent or property crime here is one in 34. Within California, more than 85% of the communities have a lower crime rate than Modesto.
How does the crime rate in Modesto compare to similar sized communities across America? When NeighborhoodScout compared Modesto with other communities its size, we found that the crime rate was near the average for all other communities of similar size. So, whether Modesto's crime rate is high or low compared to all places in the US, when we control for population size and compare it to places that are similar in size, it is near the middle of the pack in crime rate; not much more or less dangerous, and about what we would expect from the statistics.
Now let us turn to take a look at how Modesto does for violent crimes specifically, and then how it does for property crimes. This is important because the overall crime rate can be further illuminated by understanding if violent crime or property crimes (or both) are the major contributors to the general rate of crime in Modesto.
For Modesto, we found that the violent crime rate is one of the highest in the nation, across communities of all sizes (both large and small). Violent offenses tracked included rape, murder and non-negligent manslaughter, armed robbery, and aggravated assault, including assault with a deadly weapon. According to NeighborhoodScout's analysis of FBI reported crime data, your chance of becoming a victim of one of these crimes in Modesto is one in 155.
NeighborhoodScout's analysis also reveals that Modesto's rate for property crime is 23 per one thousand population. This makes Modesto a place where there is an above average chance of becoming a victim of a property crime, when compared to all other communities in America of all population sizes. Property crimes are motor vehicle theft, arson, larceny, and burglary. Your chance of becoming a victim of any of these crimes in Modesto is one in 44.
Importantly, we found that Modesto has one of the highest rates of motor vehicle theft in the nation according to our analysis of FBI crime data. This is compared to communities of all sizes, from the smallest to the largest. In fact, your chance of getting your car stolen if you live in Modesto is one in 262.
Modesto Crime
Data
FAQ on NeighborhoodScout's Crime Data
NeighborhoodScout® provides exclusive crime risk analytics for every neighborhood in America with up to 98% predictive accuracy. Crime risk indices are nationally comparable on a 1 – 100 scale, where 100 means safer than 100% of U.S. neighborhoods.
Crime risk data are updated annually. Raw crime incidents are sourced from all 18,000+ local law enforcement agencies – municipal, county, transit, park, port, university, tribal and more, assigned to localities, then built into NeighborhoodScout’s proprietary predictive models to provide a comprehensive crime risk profile for every neighborhood and address-vicinity in the U.S.
